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The NBRHL

Copyright Iain Fyffe, 2006

A few years ago, a new senior league started up in my home province of New Brunswick; the NBRHL. This semi-pro league has been in existence for a while now, and I thought I would review the results for those who don't know about it. Trust me, there's a lesson in this. Just bear with me.

This league is made up six well-balanced and very competitive teams: Fredericton (my home town), Bathurst, Edmundston, Aroostook, Doaktown and Campbellton. They play a balanced, 50-game regular season, followed by two rounds of playoffs. In the first round, the #1 seed meets #4, and #2 meets #3. The winners of the first round play off for the championship. All playoff series are best-of-seven.

The NBRHL's first season was 2002/03. Campbellton took the early lead in the standings, sitting at 13-7 after 20 games (there are no ties; shootouts are used to decide games tied after regulation). They withstood challenges from Doaktown and Bathurst to retain their top position through the end of the season, finishing at 30-20. The final standings were:

The first round of the playoffs featured two upsets. Fredericton defeated league-leading Campbellton in seven games, while Doaktown downed Bathurst in six. Fredericton was riding a hot streak going into the playoffs, winning seven of their last eight regular-season contests, so many fans were not surprised with their playoff performance.

But Fredericton could not keep their momentum going; Doaktown took the final, four games to three. Fredericton actually had a 3-2 lead in games, but their luck ran out. Doaktown, who had a slow start to the season, but won 18 of their last 31 regular-season games, had captured the inaugural NBRHL championship.

Campbellton was once again on top of the standings in 2003/04. Only Aroostook (who climbed to second) and Bathurst (who fell to fifth) had any significant change in their standing from the year before. The results:

The league leaders would not be denied this season. After avenging their 2003 defeat with a six-game victory over Fredericton, Campbellton took the hard-fought final against Aroostook in seven games. Doaktown went out in the first round, unable to defend their championship. Some said they were lucky to have won the previous year; others said they simply choked in the playoffs.

2004/05 saw a major change in the balance of power. Aroostook built upon their eight-game improvement in 2003/04 with another five-game jump, and sat on top of the standings with a 32-18 record. Campbellton sunk to 24-26, being unable to handle the new league powerhouse, going 2-8 against Aroostook for the year. Doaktown, a playoff team the first two seasons, plummeted to the basement. Clearly their early playoff departure the previous season had sapped their self-confidence, and they looked nothing like the champions of two years before. The standings:

Since Edmundston and Campbellton had split their season series 5-5, a one-game playoff was needed to determine the fourth playoff spot. Edmundston took it to once again preclude the possiblity of back-to-back championships.

Aroostook easily defeated Edmundston 4-1, and Bathurst handled Fredericton 4-1 as well in the first round of playoffs. Bathurst was no match for Aroostook in the finals, who added the league championship to their first-place regular-season finish, making it two years in a row in which the first-place team in the regular season also won the playoff championship. Clearly, Aroostook was a team on the rise.

Two northern teams took over for the season just finished. Bathurst and Edmundston had finished fifth and sixth respectively in 2003/04, moved up to third and fourth in 2004/05, and completed their ascent to first and second in 2005/06. Aroostook suffered a championship hangover. Though they were able to stay at .500 for most of the season, they went 4-12 in their last 16 games to finish last with a 21-29 record.

Though Campbellton finished with their worst-ever record (23-27), in the playoffs they showed their winning experience in defeating Bathurst in the first round and Edmundston in the final. Though Bathurst had done well in winning the regular-season title, they had also won only one playoff series in their history, including a loss in the 2005 final, so there were obvious questions about whether they had what it takes to win important games. Campbellton took their second league title in three seasons. The standings:

I hope you're still reading. And if you are, you're probably wondering what the hell this article is doing on this site. What does this have to do with hockey analysis?

Well, I wasn't wholly truthful to begin with. The NBRHL is fictional. In fact, the 'R' in the acronym stands for 'Random'; it's the New Brunswick Random Hockey League. Did you notice that the teams are A, B, C, D, E and F?

I set up a schedule for each season (using the same schedule each year), and randomly determined the winner of each game using a computer-generated number. Why would I do such a thing? Because I don't think most people realize how powerful random chance can be.

The league leaders over the four seasons had an avarage of 30.75 wins, for a winning percentage of .615. This would translate into about 101 points in an 82-game schedule. Even in a completely random league, then, some teams can appear to be significantly better than others.

Human brains seek out patterns naturally, and subconsciously. This often leads us to see patterns that aren't even there. Look at the results of the first season for the 'Fredericton' team:

WLWWWLWLWWWLLLLWLLWWWWWLLLLLLLWWLLLWWLLLLLWWWWWWLW

This team had a seven-game losing streak, a six-game winning streak, a five-game losing streak and a four-game losing streak on its way to a 25-25 record. Of course, all of these "streaks" are utterly meaningless because the results are entirely random. But we seek out patterns; we see the team winning five straight in games 19 through 24, then lose seven from 25 through 31. We see it losing five straight in games 38 through 42, then win six in games 43 through 48. The traditional interpretation would be that this is a very streaky, hot-and-cold team. The reality, of course, is that the results were 100% random.

Now of course I'm not arguing that NHL results are random; they're clearly not. I'm just saying that many people don't realize the enormous role random chance can play in this sort of thing. Unfortunately, these people mostly seem to work in the mainstream hockey media.

Did Campbellton win the championship in 2006 because of their previous playoff experience? Of course not, it was random. Did Aroostook in 2005 and Campbellton in 2004 really prove they were the best teams in those years by winning the playoffs after great regular seasons? No, it was random.

Even after 200+ games, some teams still seem significantly better than other, even though they should all be at or near .500, in theory. The aggregate results of these four seasons, including playoffs, are below.

Does Campbellton winning two champioships in three seasons have any significance? Does the fact that Doaktown never finished higher than third mean anything? Do Campbellton's two consecutive first-place finishes indicate anything about the team? No, of course not. All of these results were completely random.

Pure random chance has a very powerful effect on the world, in all its aspects. Due to the chaotic nature of the game of hockey, the effects of chance on the game are likely quite strong. Don't let yourself be fooled into thinking a random occurrence has any real significance. Remember that, Senators fans.